Republican leaders are urging Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) to reconsider his potential run for New York governor, given concerns about his battleground House seat as the party aims to protect its fragile majority. Lawler, a two-term congressman in a district carried by Kamala Harris in 2020, has yet to finalize his decision, stating he will announce his plans by June. GOP officials, including Rep. Richard Hudson, see Lawler as crucial to retaining the Hudson Valley seat and express reluctance at the prospect of him vacating it.
With Democrats needing only three additional seats to reclaim control of the House, the stakes are high. Trump’s former advisers share concerns over Lawler’s potential gubernatorial bid, emphasizing the importance of keeping his seat secure. GOP strategist opinions highlight Lawler’s unique suitability for his district, stating there is no one of his caliber prepared to replace him.
Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), another possible gubernatorial candidate, complicates the situation further. While she appears to have a safer seat upstate, there are worries about her electability in a general election, especially given New York’s Democratic leanings. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) expressed a preference for both Lawler and Stefanik to remain in the House, although his comments caused some friction between the two.
Internal GOP tensions have surfaced, particularly surrounding discussions on the state and local tax deduction (SALT), which could be pivotal in the gubernatorial race. Some party insiders believe Stefanik could defeat Lawler in a primary but currently lack confidence in her general election viability under the state’s demographic realities. Overall, navigating these dynamics will be critical for Republican strategies leading up to the 2026 election.
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